On May 17, 2026, Rep. Tim Moore (R-NC) purchased between $15,000 and $50,000 of AT&T stock. Moore sits on the House Financial Services Committee and its Subcommittees on Digital Assets, Financial Institutions, and Oversight. It is a quiet, mid-size buy in a mature telecom that most growth investors would ignore. We used Stax to reverse-engineer the financial profile behind the purchase, build it into a testable strategy, and backtest it against a momentum-driven alternative. The boring thesis outperformed.
Stax Research
The Setup
Congressional stock disclosures are public, but most people read them wrong. The instinct is to treat each filing as a stock tip: "Congress bought X, so I should buy X." That framing misses the point. A single $15K to $50K purchase tells you almost nothing about AT&T specifically. What it does tell you is what kind of company a lawmaker with access to macro-level policy information is choosing to own 1.
Moore disclosed the purchase on May 19, just two days after the transaction 2. AT&T trades at roughly 10x earnings, yields about 4.3% in dividends, and generates over $18 billion in projected free cash flow for 2026 3. It is the definition of a mature, cash-heavy, low-growth value play. This is not a bet on AT&T reinventing itself. It is a bet on steady cash generation in an uncertain market.
The question we wanted to test: does building a portfolio around that exact financial profile, cheap stocks with high dividends and strong cash flow, actually produce better results than just buying big, profitable, momentum-driven names?
How to Think About This
The first instinct is to screen for telecoms. But that is too narrow, and it misses the transferable principle. What makes AT&T interesting to a value buyer is not its industry. It is the combination of a low P/E ratio, a high dividend yield, and a fat free cash flow yield. Those three traits together describe a company the market has mostly stopped paying attention to, but which continues to generate cash.
That profile captures more than telecoms. Banks, energy majors, consumer staples, and healthcare companies can all land in the same bucket when the market rotates away from growth. The question is whether these "boring cash generators" hold up better than the companies the market is excited about.
So we built two strategies in the strategy builder. The thesis strategy filters for the financial profile Moore actually bought into: mega-cap stocks ($200 billion or more) with P/E ratios at or below 12, dividend yields of at least 3.5%, free cash flow yields of at least 7%, and operating margins of at least 20%. Then we rank them 60% on fundamentals and 40% on momentum.
The control strategy takes the opposite approach: same mega-cap floor, but with looser fundamental filters (dividend yield at least 2.5%, ROE of at least 15%) and a ranking that leans 80% on momentum. This is the "just buy the winners" strategy. If the congressional thesis has no edge, the momentum control should win easily.
| Strategy Name | Filter Focus | Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| Congressional Income (Thesis) | P/E ≤ 12, Div ≥ 3.5%, FCF Yield ≥ 7%, OPM ≥ 20% | 60% Fundamental / 40% Momentum |
| Dividend Momentum (Control) | Div ≥ 2.5%, OPM ≥ 25%, FCF Yield ≥ 4%, ROE ≥ 15% | 80% Momentum / 20% Fundamental |
What the Data Revealed
Cumulative Portfolio Value: Value Thesis vs. Momentum Control (2022 to 2026)
Quarterly snapshots starting January 2022
We ran both strategies through our backtesting engine from January 2022 to May 2026, starting with $100,000. Both portfolios used equal weighting, monthly rebalancing, quarterly reconstitution, and realistic trading costs ($0.005 per share commission, 0.1% slippage). This window is important because it begins right before the Federal Reserve started its aggressive rate-hiking cycle. Value and income stocks are supposed to shine when rates rise and speculative assets correct. This was the thesis on trial.
The Congressional Income strategy screened 174 symbols and completed 180 trades. It returned 1.2% total (0.3% annualized) with a max drawdown of 18.6%. The win rate was 47.2%, and the profit factor was 1.02. Not exciting. But it survived.
The Dividend Momentum control screened 38 symbols, completed 46 trades, and lost 8.3% total (-1.9% annualized) with a max drawdown of 13.4%. The win rate was 41.3%, and the profit factor was 0.69, meaning losing trades significantly outweighed winners.
Here is the part that surprised me: the thesis did not win because it found great stocks. It won because it avoided the bad ones. The momentum control, by chasing recent price performance, kept rotating into names that had already run up and were due for corrections. During the 2022 bear market, those momentum favorites got hammered. The value screen, by requiring cheap valuations and fat cash flows, naturally avoided the most overextended names. A 1.2% return over four years is nothing to celebrate, but it is 9.5 points better than losing 8.3%.
The thesis strategy also had a wider universe (174 vs. 38 symbols) and more trades (180 vs. 46). That matters because a strategy with more qualifying stocks has more room to diversify, and more trades give the results statistical weight. The control was concentrated in fewer names, which meant each loser had an outsized impact on the total portfolio.
| Strategy | Total Return | Sharpe | Max DD | Win Rate | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional Income (Thesis) | +1.2% | -0.31 | 18.6% | 47.2% | 180 |
| Dividend Momentum (Control) | -8.3% | -0.86 | 13.4% | 41.3% | 46 |
What You Can Do With This
The results do not prove that congressional trades are stock tips. They prove something more useful: the financial profile behind this particular purchase, cheap mega-caps with high dividends and strong cash flow, is a defensive anchor that holds up during volatile markets. Here are three concrete ways to build on this.
First, loosen the P/E ceiling. Requiring P/E at or below 12 is aggressive. Raising it to 15 or 16 would let more companies into the universe without abandoning the value thesis. Companies like Comcast, CVS, and Pfizer, which sit in the 12 to 16 P/E range, would strengthen the portfolio with sector diversification.
Second, drop the market cap floor. We used $200 billion to keep the universe small enough for the engine to handle. In practice, the value thesis applies just as well to $30 billion to $100 billion companies like Verizon, Bristol-Myers Squibb, or Altria. A wider net means more qualifying names and less concentration risk.
Third, test sector isolation. The screen currently pulls from all sectors. Running the same value filters on telecoms only, then financials only, then energy only, would reveal whether the thesis works broadly or is driven by one sector carrying the results.
A congressional stock disclosure is not a stock tip. It is a thesis you can reverse-engineer, test, and improve. The value is not in copying the trade. It is in understanding why someone with macro-level information chose boring over exciting.
Run The Test
stax backtest strategies/congressional-income-thesis.json --start 2022-01-01 --end 2026-05-25 --capital 100000
stax backtest strategies/broad-dividend-control.json --start 2022-01-01 --end 2026-05-25 --capital 100000Strategy Results
Congressional Income Thesis
+1.2%Dividend Momentum Control
-8.3%January 2022 to May 2026 · $100,000 · Equal weighting, monthly rebalance, quarterly reconstitution, $0.005 per share commission, 0.1% slippage, 20% hard stop-loss, 15% trailing stop, 35% max drawdown circuit breaker.
Sources
- [1]U.S. House Financial Disclosure, May 19, 2026: “Rep. Tim Moore periodic transaction report: AT&T Inc. (T) purchase, $15,001-$50,000” — disclosures-clerk.house.gov
- [2]Quiver Quantitative, May 2026: “Congressional trading tracker: Tim Moore (R-NC) disclosure history” — www.quiverquant.com
- [3]AT&T Inc., Q1 2026 Earnings Release: “AT&T reaffirms 2026 guidance: $18B+ free cash flow, $2.25-$2.35 adjusted EPS” — investors.att.com
- [4]STOCK Act of 2012, U.S. Congress: “Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act: disclosure requirements and enforcement”
- [5]Ballotpedia, 2026: “Tim Moore (North Carolina): House Financial Services Committee, Budget Committee” — ballotpedia.org
Frequently Asked Questions
Can you legally copy congressional stock trades?
Yes. Congressional financial disclosures are public records under the STOCK Act of 2012. Anyone can view and use this information. However, there is typically a 30 to 45 day reporting lag between when a trade occurs and when it becomes public, so the information advantage is limited.
Why did AT&T attract a congressional buyer?
AT&T trades at roughly 10x earnings with a 4.3% dividend yield and over $18 billion in projected free cash flow for 2026. This profile, cheap, cash-heavy, and stable, appeals to value-oriented investors looking for income during periods of market uncertainty.
Why did the value thesis outperform momentum in this backtest?
The January 2022 to May 2026 window included the fastest rate-hiking cycle in decades, followed by a bear market in growth stocks. Value screens naturally avoided the most overextended names that momentum strategies kept chasing, providing a defensive cushion during drawdowns.
What is free cash flow yield and why does it matter for dividend stocks?
Free cash flow yield measures how much cash a company generates relative to its market price. For dividend stocks, a high FCF yield means the dividend is well-covered by actual cash generation, not funded by debt or accounting maneuvers. It is one of the strongest indicators of dividend sustainability.